There is no I in me.

Jeeez, you are all such a chatty bunch today, and in all the threads! It feels like playing sardines in some huge mansion. You are all so silly and I am so serious and hard at work

Hi, Gypsy! Hi Dunc! And again, Alex, Andra, JJ!



Oceans

JJ!

You made it to HK! No N. Korea, then?

How many showers are you contemplating for today?

Hi, Andrea, Alex, everybody!

Oceans

Hi, Spider, thanks for the courtesy in your reply.

Under Clinton the NIEs discussed the possibility that Iraq might 'reconstitute' its WMD programs, or start up nuclear programs. The conclusion was that the evidence was not determinative, and that the Bush senior and Clinton policies of sanctions and containment were the best way to handle Iraq. (Personally, I did not agree, but their were not unreasonable positions to take.)

Under Bush jr and prior to Sept 11, there was a major effort by the neocons to assert that Iraq was escalating its WMD 'programs'. With Sept 11, their efforts blossomed, in the atmosphere of panic that enveloped the government. Disinformation was created about the purported WMD program that exceeded by far the earlier Bush/Clinton concerns.

We now have a lot of information on WHO created this disinformation, how it was introduced into the government's deliberations on Iraq, and how it was used to override legityimate intelligence coming out of several agencies of the US intelligence community.

Examples of baseless disinformation, or worse, disinformation that is based on forgeries, include: the aluminum pipes, Niger yellowcake, Saddam-Sept 11 connections, the Prague meeting, the mobile bioweapons trucks, the nuclear program, the Chalabi claims, etc. Many of the very neocons who promenaded this disinformaiton (except Mylroie) have now acknowledged the falsity of this disinformation.

I have posted a lot about this in other threads which you can find easily enough. Wolfowitz, Ledeen, Feith, Bolton, Abrams, Franklin, Libby, Mylroie, Wurmser (both husband and wife), etc. were in senior positions in the government and were the main actors in this deception. This is not a complete list -- if you start to look into this I can give you more leads.

I can comment separately if you like on the roles that Bush and Cheney played. I assume you are looking at all the info that has come out about this in the last couple of weeks.

Better yet are several books that have come out in th elast couple of years that explore this, often in detail. I can give you the references to these books if you like. I think you may be interested in what they have to say.

Regards,
Oceans

But who will talk to him????

The Palestinians will have him to tea. The Israelis will have him to tea. They can all use the other to make themselves look good, but beyond the pr, what????



Oceans

David -- hang in there.

You have a tough road ahead, but with your great determination who knows what odds you will beat! You are in our thoughts and let's stay in touch.


Oceans

Fanta, is the Campus Watch you are referring to here the Daniel Pipes organization? If it is they are a pretty nasty bunch of thought-police.... please tell me they are not!



Oceans

My understanding is from unclassified materials that the smallest nuke is in the range of 1.5 kilotons -- about 1/10th Hiroshima bomb. And yes, it can be fit into a (heavy) suitcase.

Worse weapons, in terms of cost and mobility, are on the horizon.

My guess is that the world is on for a nother unsettling period of nuclear-related negotiations, saber-rattling, scares and crises until we find a collective formula that allows people to feel semi-secure.



Oceans

Are you guys in Europe picking up anything more on Blair? There had been a dearth of hard new news in the ast couple of days, here.

I do know that there was string opposition to the notion of using Blair in any capacity regarding the Israeli-Palestinian situation.

BTW, have you read Alavaro de Soto's final report on his work as the UN's envoy to the Quartet and to the Israelis/Palestinians?

It is a significant document.


How's Amsterdam?

Oceans

Wonderful -- well questioned, s1owhand.

Well done....



Oceans

Yes, Spider, I should have specified post-invasion NIE. You can find the background on the one you cite in David Isikoff's or Tom Ricks books. There you willsee that the NIE you cite was 'spun' by Scooter Libby/Cheney with Doug Feith's help.

It will certainly stand as the nadir of political interference with the intelligence process. As you can imagine, George Tenet (in his new book) also has some choice comments about that NIE.

You will notice that this pre-invasion NIE is where the canard about the Niger yellow-cake was slipped in by Feith. "A foreign government service reported that as of early 2001, Niger planned to send several tons of "pure uranium" (probably yellowcake) to Iraq. As of early 2001, Niger and Iraq reportedly were still working out arrangements for this deal, which could be for up to 500 tons of yellowcake. We do not know the status of this arrangement."

It was known at the time that this was disinformation, though it was not quite clear who had originated. (We now do know where it came from). The CIA, which has the lead in putting the NIE together knew it was fanciful, but Feith, backed by Cheney and Libby, in a memorable showdown demanded that it be put in the NIE.

Thanks for bringing this up. The FAs documents collection is a good one.

In any case, the April 2006 NIE is the one I was citing for Sister. Since the claims that Iraq had current WMD were shown to be disinformation (and we now also know where that came from -- Chalabi to Woolsey to Feith and on up) the US intelligence community has pulled itself together and is now producing pretty good estimates. But they still rankle over how the politicians manipulated their findings.

Spider, I don't see these conversations as macho mud slinging or occassions for rudeness. The goal is not to score points, but to learn. Putting people down is a trivial act and, in my opinion, beneath you. I don't waste my time with folks who want to 'win' more than they want to learn. There are a lot of people here you can learn from if you want to do so. If you don't want to learn from me, that is absolutely fine with me, and will save my time. It is your choice. But let's be clear about it, ok?

Oceans

In the good news department: at long last the various pieces of our democracy are starting to stir themselves and are beginning the long road back to sanity after these six years of chaos created by Sept 11.

Congress is starting to demand correct information from the administration.

Some of the worst actors are gone (Rumsfeld, Wolfowitz, Feith, Bolton, Libby) and others are starting to come under long-overdue scrutiny (Cheney, Gonzales, Yoo, Addington, Rove).

Even the Supreme Court yesterday took the very unusual step of changing its mind and accepting to try another case on the illegal or extra-legal detention of terro 'suspects'.

The press has refused, or at least most it has, to swallow the neocon disinformation on Iran, and while the neocons could still launch some kind of missile strike on Iran their hopes for an invasion are essentially dead (I hope I amd not just engaged in wishful thinking, here!)

So we have a LONG way to go to recover, but I am modestly optimistic that we have started....



Oceans

hey Jax!!!

Bobby

Hi, Sage!

I love the story about firing the round near the medic and handing him a rifle.

Is you son going as a Navy medic? What kind of action is he likely to be exposed to?

You know he will be in my thoughts, old friend. When does he ship out?

Oceans

Hi, Dream,

I wish all Americans had your curiosity about the world and desire to make a difference. There is nothing like travel and living on other continents to broaden your own understanding of how the world works, and how human beings are.

On the face of it, it sounds absurd that anyone would say this in unamerican. Americans have a rich tradition of travel and assisting in development overseas, and I am delighted that you want to follow in their footsteps.

I hope you'll share with us some of your thinking about where you want to go and what you might want to do. I know quite a bit about Europe and the Middle East and would be happy to give you information if you would like it. They are both wonderful paces to visit, as I am sure many other parts of the world are.

The world is open before you...go for it!



Oceans

No NIE ever said there were WMDs in Iraq, Spider. Please go back and check them out.

The eyes have it!

And now..... back to Iraq.

Here are some of the key things happening in Iraq or about Iraq

since we last had an active thread on it.

1. The US military is in internal disagreement about troop levels. Having opposed Pres. Bush's 'surge' escalation, some are now saying that to accomplish the 'mission' they have to have even more troops.

Bush's political weakness now is leading critics who formerly kept quiet to speak out more. There is also within the US military a sense that its leadership failed to accurately present to the President and the Vice-President Cheney its real thoughts and concerns with the Iraq invasion and occupation. Regarding this, General Pace was dismissed because he was viewed as weak and lost the support of the military leadership.

2. The present US military strategy is to have US troops 'clear' areas of Baghdad and Iraq, which would then be 'held' by Iraqi troops, while the American troops moved on to new areas.

This was a strategy developed by an analyst at the American Enterprise Institute and one of the last neocons still publicly advocating 'victory' in Iraq.

But the underlying reality is becoming increasingly impossible to ignore: the Iraqi military and police have no interest in supporting the US occupation. Indeed, much of the intel and munitions that are being used by the Iraqi resistance is coming from personnel and armories that are in the Iraqi military and police.


What do you think? Should the US strategy be dependent on an Iraqi military that shows little interest in supporting the US strategy? If not, what are the alternative?

Oceans

Hi, Big Sister....

In the April 2006 National Intelligence Estimate, the US intelligence agencies concluded that our war in Iraq is making the threat of terrorism against the US worse. The war is not protecting America, it is endangering America.

I can get the references for you if you want them.

Oceans

Well....there is really no excuse for rudeness.

I always figure that rude people simply don't have the skill to express themselves adequately, so they cover it up with rudeness.

Thanks for posting this, Whisper!



Oceans

Well done, Done indeed can!



Oceans