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| Topic: What are the odds??? | |
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I think I like this thread. Shut up, Dan!
 Hiya Judith
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Edited by
TBRich
on
Tue 06/30/09 03:58 PM
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I have found that alot of women (and men) don't give the other person something to remember them by. I have alot of dates where two-three weeks later, I go "oh shoot, I never called what's her name back, well probably too late now" Oh sorry forgot...Shut up Dan
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I seem to have a thing for mean-spirited libras. So I don't date libras anymore. Go figure.
And good luck, maybe this one won't be an SOB.
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I won't date anyone who's name starts with "J".. for me, its just a bad omen *shrugs* it is what it is.
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Anyway the odds.
To keep it simple, assume the odds of meeting someone with a particular birth date is 365 to 1. The chances the next one having the same birthday is the same, but both together, you multiply the odds 365 x 365 = 133,225 to one. and for 3 the same 365 x 365 x 365 = 48,627,125 to one. Play the lottery. (these figues are nowhere near the right odds!) |
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Ok. I'm doomed. Something's definitely not right here. I dated two guys last year (not at the same time of course...shut up, Dan) that were both born on the same day. April 18th. Both had the same habits, almost identical tattoos in the same places and were pretty much worthless SOBs. Still fun to be around though...but that's not the point. I met another guy a couple of weeks ago and you know what? His birthday is April 18th. Ok, I'm starting to get creeped out now. I mean what are the odds??? Should I run? Should I hide? WHAT??? you could invite them all over for a "birthday bash". shut up dan |
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I have found that alot of women (and men) don't give the other person something to remember them by. I have alot of dates where two-three weeks later, I go "oh shoot, I never called what's her name back, well probably too late now" Oh sorry forgot...Shut up Dan What do you mean I didn't give him something to remember him by??? The mere fact that I came darn near close to begging him to do me because he got me so hot and bothered wasn't enough??? Was I supposed to leave a massive hickey on his neck? Hiya, Koury...shut up, Dan!!! |
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wow relationship groundhogs day. HAH
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I won't date anyone who's name starts with "J".. for me, its just a bad omen *shrugs* it is what it is. Damn...NOW you're telling me. 
Shut up, Dan. |
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Edited by
TBRich
on
Tue 06/30/09 04:04 PM
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I have found that alot of women (and men) don't give the other person something to remember them by. I have alot of dates where two-three weeks later, I go "oh shoot, I never called what's her name back, well probably too late now" Oh sorry forgot...Shut up Dan What do you mean I didn't give him something to remember him by??? The mere fact that I came darn near close to begging him to do me because he got me so hot and bothered wasn't enough??? Was I supposed to leave a massive hickey on his neck? Hiya, Koury...shut up, Dan!!! I don't want to offend anyone, but s&x isn't really that important to most men. You have to touch his heart, make him smile, make him want to spend a rainy Sunday morning in bed reading the paper with you. Forgot again... Shut up Dan |
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Ok. I'm doomed. Something's definitely not right here. I dated two guys last year (not at the same time of course...shut up, Dan) that were both born on the same day. April 18th. Both had the same habits, almost identical tattoos in the same places and were pretty much worthless SOBs. Still fun to be around though...but that's not the point. I met another guy a couple of weeks ago and you know what? His birthday is April 18th. Ok, I'm starting to get creeped out now. I mean what are the odds??? Should I run? Should I hide? WHAT??? you could invite them all over for a "birthday bash". shut up dan I'm kind of liking that idea...but then I'd have to wait until April 18th. I don't want to wait that long. |
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Ooops...Shut up, Dan!!!
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I have found that alot of women (and men) don't give the other person something to remember them by. I have alot of dates where two-three weeks later, I go "oh shoot, I never called what's her name back, well probably too late now" Oh sorry forgot...Shut up Dan What do you mean I didn't give him something to remember him by??? The mere fact that I came darn near close to begging him to do me because he got me so hot and bothered wasn't enough??? Was I supposed to leave a massive hickey on his neck? Hiya, Koury...shut up, Dan!!! I don't want to offend anyone, but s&x isn't really that important to most men. You have to touch his heart, make him smile, make him want to spend a rainy Sunday morning in bed reading the paper with you. Well I'm on the right path then...he didn't ask me for sex and he's probably reading the paper as we speak. Shut up, Dan. |
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sounds like a Boys from Brazil thing
you sure they weren't all little hitler clones? oh and shut up Dan |
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I had a quasi creepy situation happen too but not quite as specific. In one year, all the guys I met, that I became interested in dating, were all Virgos.  That didn't dictate whether I would date them or not -- but it was weird.
I'd say over-look it and see if he is worthy of you. Coincidence is a goofy thing ... 
You're brave, I can NOT handle Virgos  
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sounds like a Boys from Brazil thing you sure they weren't all little hitler clones? oh and shut up Dan No, I'm not sure at all. Shut up, Dan! |
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I wonder if theres like a numerology website that could give you some more interesting or spooky facts about those days, and stuff..
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Edited by
Tigardman
on
Tue 06/30/09 04:11 PM
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Ok. I'm doomed. Something's definitely not right here. I dated two guys last year (not at the same time of course...shut up, Dan) that were both born on the same day. April 18th. Both had the same habits, almost identical tattoos in the same places and were pretty much worthless SOBs. Still fun to be around though...but that's not the point. I met another guy a couple of weeks ago and you know what? His birthday is April 18th. Ok, I'm starting to get creeped out now. I mean what are the odds??? Should I run? Should I hide? WHAT??? I feel your pain. My date seems to be September 22-25th Dated 2 different women, First her bday was September 22, second was September 23rd, and my ex wifes bday was sept 25th. The spooky thing is that my bday is September 24th. The group of friends I hung out with 5 out of the 6 were Libras. We all worked well together. But Im beginning to think that finding a woman who is also a Libra is bad juju. Time shall tell. TM PS Oh..Shut up Dan |
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Hmmm...so basically I should stay away from Aries men? That's easier said than done...I seem to attract them for some odd reason.
Shut up, Dan |
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Edited by
lighthouselover
on
Tue 06/30/09 04:16 PM
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well, I found this... Here's a fun and easy application of probability to show the odds are good that at least two people in a relatively small group will share the same birthday. Let's say you asked me when I celebrated my birthday, and I replied, "guess." If you were nice enough to play along, you would very probably guess wrong. Ignoring leap years, there are 365 days in a year, and I only celebrate my birthday on one of those days. The odds of you correctly guessing my birthday is 1 in 365 (or .003%). That's an easy concept to grasp. It makes sense that you're not likely to guess my birthday. Now let's say you know my birthday. What are the odds that the next person you meet on the street will share the same birthday as me? Again, the odds are abysmal: 1 out of 365. Therefore it seems very unlikely you'll find two people who share the same birthday, right? Well, not necessarily. Let's say you know a group of 10 people. What are the odds that two of them share the same birthday? Without doing any math, it just seems the odds are low. How about 20 people? Or 30 people? Are the odds of two people sharing a birthday really low? How large does a group have to be until it actually becomes likely that two people actually DO share a birthday? The answer may surprise you. But before we calculate it, let's predict something easier: dice. You pick up two fair dice, give them a shake, and roll. What are the odds of rolling a match? (That's sort of like two people sharing a birthday.) One strategy is to first calculate the odds of NOT rolling a match and then subtract from 1. That provides the odds of the opposite event (ie, rolling a match). Think of flipping a coin. The odds of it landing heads are 1/2. Therefore the odds of it NOT landing heads are 1/2. Same principle applies here. Let's do it: First calculate all the possible combinations of two rolled dice: 11 12 13 14 15 16 21 22 23 24 25 26 31 32 33 34 35 36 41 42 43 44 45 46 51 52 53 54 55 56 61 62 63 64 65 66 Count the combinations and you get 36. We could have achieved the same result by multiplying 6 x 6. So there are 36 possibilities. How many of those possibilities do NOT provide a match? xx 12 13 14 15 16 21 xx 23 24 25 26 31 32 xx 34 35 36 41 42 43 xx 45 46 51 52 53 54 xx 56 61 62 63 64 65 xx Count the possibilities and you get 30. Again we could have achieved the same result by multiplying 6 x 5. The first die has 6 ways it can land. The second die only has 5 ways to land if it is to satisfy the condition of NOT matching. Therefore there are 6 x 5 combinations of dice not matching. So the odds of rolling two dice that do NOT match is 30/36, or 5/6. The odds of rolling the opposite situations -- two dice that DO match -- are consequently 1 - 5/6, or 1/6. It would have been easier to just count the number of matches in our table, but the mathematical method will come in handy when calculating the odds of two people in a group having the same birthday. Speaking of which, let's do that now. Pretend we have a slightly overcrowded classroom of 30 students. What are the odds of any two of the kids having the same birthday? As we did with the dice, let us first count the possible combinations, except minus the table. The total combinations of dice rolls was 6 x 6. Likewise, the total combination of birthdays is 365 x 365 x 365 x....(30 times), or more succinctly 36530. (Again we ignore leap years.) That's our denominator. Without calculating we can quickly see that's a huge number. Now, as before, let's calculate the number of possibilities that do NOT provide a matching birthday. The first person states his birthday. For the next person to NOT have the same birthday, she has to pick from 364 days. The next person must choose from 363 days. And so on. Again were trying to calculate the number of combinations in which no one has a matching birthday. For the dice, the calculation was 6 x 5. Here we do the same thing: 365 x 364 x 363 x 362 x ... x 339 x 338 x 337 x 336 We can write this more concisely as follows: where n equals the number of kids in the classroom (in this case 30) and the exclamation point means "factorial". Factorials are defined as n*(n-1)*(n-2)....(3)(2)(1). For example, 6! = 6*5*4*3*2*1. Calculate and you have our numerator. Put the two together to find the odds of NOT finding at least two kids with the same birthday in a group of 30 kids: There's about a 30% chance that you will NOT find at least two kids who share the same birthday in a group of 30. Therefore the opposite situation, that you WILL find at least two kids with the same birthday in a group of 30, is a whopping 70% (1 - .3 = .7). In fact, we find that in a group of 23 kids, your odds are better than 50% to find at least two people with the same birthday. And that's the Birthday Paradox. It doesn't seem possible that the odds should be so good to find at least two people with the same birthday in such a relatively small group. But they are. Remember, these are not the odds of finding someone with the same birthday as YOU in a group of 30 people. These are the odds of finding at least two people out of 30 who share a birthday. SHUT UP DAN! |
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