Topic: Measuring the economy
indianadave4's photo
Thu 09/20/18 10:21 PM

I think the people who are talking about how their personal lives feel so much better because they got rid of their debts, are missing a VERY important point.

That is, that it isn't going into debt or not going into debt which is important. There is not only nothing magic about not borrowing money, it can actually be a horrible decision to stick to.

Because what matters economically, is WHY you go into debt.

Whether we are talking personal finances, or national economies, what you do regarding debt can be smart, conservative self-discipline, or it can be stupid, short-sighted and self destructive idiocy.

Simple example: your car engine throws a rod, and dies, through no fault of yours. Just bad luck. It will cost more than you have in cash, to pay for the repair. The "never borrow money; if you can't afford it, don't do it" car owner will sit down and say "okay, no car till I find the cash." In the meantime, no car, means they have to quit the higher paying job that they had on the other side of town, and find something in walking distance, or with free transportation provided, so that they can continue to pay for the rest of their life needs. Because they refuse to borrow, their life declines in quality accordingly.

The comparative person who thinks that SOME debt, which is actually necessary to further the big picture best interests, is a GOOD thing. So they get the car fixed or replaced, and gradually work their way out of debt.

On a national scale, if the reason for spending more than the government took in in revenues is so that people can do self-indulgent things which contribute nothing permanent to the economy, everything will go to crap. But if they are spending more in order to do things such as fund higher education, or to fund research to enable better use of resources, then the added debt will be a brilliant act that will BENEFIT the nation.

Historically, when nations have refused all debt, and simply waited for money enough to do things, their economies have been worse than sluggish, and have had to wait for serendipitous occurrences such as the sudden discovery of gold deposits or something, in order to progress.

INTELLIGENT use of debt has worked consistently well.



Well, I guess I'll disagree. Not using credit: 1) it gives me confidence in my financial stability and what I can do.This translates into confidence in the economy, 2) It allows me to put, at least, a little bit away for that rainy day, 3) As we all saw in 2008/2009 when the economy went down many who were in debt lost houses, cars, etc, because one or both house hold jobs were lost or time on the job reduced and they were living off of credit cards.

I understand to buy a house or car, yes, a mortgage is needed. But credit cards are not a wise way to operate. I don't like the idea of making bankers rich off of interest just to buy a pair of jeans. Credit cards, also, push prices up. Manufacturers and distributors know people will use credit so they maintain higher price margins. Without credit cards people have to be more selective and sellers have to use price to attract them (supply and demand).

Easttowest72's photo
Thu 09/20/18 11:56 PM
I have a few credit cards but have never paid credit card interest. You can make money off credit cards but you have to be disciplined when dealing with finances.

When the market crashed I didn't have any debt. It was nice not having the stress. It allowed me to buy homes at half the value. If I could go back, I would have bought more. I'm always cautious when taking on debt.

I have friends who go out on credit cards when they can't afford it. They get into trouble. Some move back in with family it gets so bad.

Tom4Uhere's photo
Fri 09/21/18 09:52 AM


I think the people who are talking about how their personal lives feel so much better because they got rid of their debts, are missing a VERY important point.

That is, that it isn't going into debt or not going into debt which is important. There is not only nothing magic about not borrowing money, it can actually be a horrible decision to stick to.

Because what matters economically, is WHY you go into debt.

Whether we are talking personal finances, or national economies, what you do regarding debt can be smart, conservative self-discipline, or it can be stupid, short-sighted and self destructive idiocy.

Simple example: your car engine throws a rod, and dies, through no fault of yours. Just bad luck. It will cost more than you have in cash, to pay for the repair. The "never borrow money; if you can't afford it, don't do it" car owner will sit down and say "okay, no car till I find the cash." In the meantime, no car, means they have to quit the higher paying job that they had on the other side of town, and find something in walking distance, or with free transportation provided, so that they can continue to pay for the rest of their life needs. Because they refuse to borrow, their life declines in quality accordingly.

The comparative person who thinks that SOME debt, which is actually necessary to further the big picture best interests, is a GOOD thing. So they get the car fixed or replaced, and gradually work their way out of debt.

On a national scale, if the reason for spending more than the government took in in revenues is so that people can do self-indulgent things which contribute nothing permanent to the economy, everything will go to crap. But if they are spending more in order to do things such as fund higher education, or to fund research to enable better use of resources, then the added debt will be a brilliant act that will BENEFIT the nation.

Historically, when nations have refused all debt, and simply waited for money enough to do things, their economies have been worse than sluggish, and have had to wait for serendipitous occurrences such as the sudden discovery of gold deposits or something, in order to progress.

INTELLIGENT use of debt has worked consistently well.


Well, I guess I'll disagree. Not using credit: 1) it gives me confidence in my financial stability and what I can do.This translates into confidence in the economy, 2) It allows me to put, at least, a little bit away for that rainy day, 3) As we all saw in 2008/2009 when the economy went down many who were in debt lost houses, cars, etc, because one or both house hold jobs were lost or time on the job reduced and they were living off of credit cards.

I understand to buy a house or car, yes, a mortgage is needed. But credit cards are not a wise way to operate. I don't like the idea of making bankers rich off of interest just to buy a pair of jeans. Credit cards, also, push prices up. Manufacturers and distributors know people will use credit so they maintain higher price margins. Without credit cards people have to be more selective and sellers have to use price to attract them (supply and demand).

I find all of this pretty accurate depending on the point of view I am considering.
When I was using credit I was buying stuff that cost more. That is because it was easier and faster to just put it on the card and worry about paying later. I made a lot of purchases I didn't need because they were on "Sale" and I might need or want them eventually. I accumulated a lot of things that I used once or twice only to become "shelf fodder". Multiply that by millions of other people and you have demand that generates supply. Problem is the demand is "ghost demand" and not an accurate economic factor to sustained growth.
Now that I am not using credit, I am wiser in my purchasing/spending habits. Any demand created by my purchasing is actual demand.

Tom4Uhere's photo
Fri 09/21/18 10:09 AM
you have to be disciplined when dealing with finances.

This is not the norm for most people. Most people operate in a immediate want/need imperative.
Makes me think of the old credit card commercial where the man flies to other parts of the world and says "I'm Packed" and you see a credit card.
It fed the 'sheeple mentality' that as long as you have a credit card you can get what you want and need anytime you want or need it.
The strategy worked because people (sheeple) are "programmed" for instant gratification.
Instant gratification is the opposite of disciplined.

If you think about the volume of 'items' people buy, most of the high volume items are ones that have successful advertising. Consider that packaging is also advertising and the volume base increase.
These high volume demands create high supply and 'ghosts' the economic figures and trends.
In essence, the economy is being subtly 'directed' by the advertising industry.
Its advertising's job to make you want to buy that particular product right now.
There are a few items with high volume demand that have poor advertising but its not a balanced figure so the economic data is "ghosted" by instant gratification, on purpose.

Easttowest72's photo
Sun 09/23/18 05:02 AM
Edited by Easttowest72 on Sun 09/23/18 05:09 AM
Americans homeowner have amassed a record $6 trillion in equity in their properties,a figure boosted by surging home prices and a trend of owners staying put longer. But rising interest rates and caution resulting from the housing troubles of a decade ago are limiting how much of that equity is getting tapped.

Tappable equity -that amount of home equity that can be withdrawn and have homeowners with at least 20% equity in their homes-topped $6 trillion in the second quarter, according to real estate data provided by Black Knight.

That's 21% higher than the pre-crisis peak from 2006. And it means 44 million households have equity available to them to help pay education cost, renovate the house or anything else they'd like.

But only $65 billion was withdrawn in cash-out refinancing or home equity lines of credit in the first quarter. That's 3% lower than the same period last year. "Rate refinances" fell 62% in the second quarter compared to a year ago to the lowest quarterly total ever recorded.


actionlynx's photo
Mon 09/24/18 04:43 PM
Debt isn't the only part of measuring the economy though.

Trade deficit is also an important factor. If a nation imports more than it exports, then that is money removed from domestic circulation. While some may stay here in the form of jobs, a good chunk of the money is going overseas to bolstering someone else's economy.

If we want a healthy economy, we can't have a trade deficit in regards to domestic circulation, i.e. more money going overseas than remaining here at home. Thus one has to look at whether the jobs created -- and the money retained at home through such -- is enough to offset the money spent by purchasing goods from another nation. The less currency circulating at home, the less room there is for economic growth and the greater the risk of inflation.

Easttowest72's photo
Tue 09/25/18 02:29 AM
Exactly! Why cutting corporate tax and bringing back jobs is so important. The trade war is important to get us on a level field. Democrats are only hurting our country.

indianadave4's photo
Tue 09/25/18 09:02 PM
Edited by indianadave4 on Tue 09/25/18 09:08 PM

Debt isn't the only part of measuring the economy though.

Trade deficit is also an important factor. If a nation imports more than it exports, then that is money removed from domestic circulation. While some may stay here in the form of jobs, a good chunk of the money is going overseas to bolstering someone else's economy.

If we want a healthy economy, we can't have a trade deficit in regards to domestic circulation, i.e. more money going overseas than remaining here at home. Thus one has to look at whether the jobs created -- and the money retained at home through such -- is enough to offset the money spent by purchasing goods from another nation. The less currency circulating at home, the less room there is for economic growth and the greater the risk of inflation.


North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) established a free-trade zone in North America; it was signed in 1992 by Canada, Mexico, and the United States and took effect on Jan. 1, 1994. NAFTA immediately lifted tariffs on the majority of goods produced by the signatory nations. It also calls for the gradual elimination, over a period of 15 years, of most remaining barriers to cross-border investment and to the movement of goods and services among the three countries.

https://www.cbp.gov/trade/nafta

-------------------------------------------


NAFTA has been great for Canadian industry and government but bad for the citizen. NAFTA is suppose to eliminate tariffs between Canada, USA and Mexico. In reality what's happening is very different. Typically tariffs on USA produced products are from 50 to 300%. American competition is being kept out of Canada so prices will be artificially maintained. This is the BIG reason Canada does not want to renegotiate NAFTA. Canadian industry and the federal government are making huge profits and do not want to give that up.
Here are complaints of Canadian consumers:

"The biggest discrepancy I have found is 24-hour allergy medication. A 24-dose package is $15 to $20 in Canada. I bought the same medication, 300 doses (a year's supply) for $14.99 in the U.S." - Ryan Harrison, Fort Erie, Ont.

"I'm a Canadian who lives in Chicago. I've lived in both B.C. and Nova Scotia, and the average price of milk there is $5 for 4 litres. In Chicago, I can buy 4 litres of milk for $1.89. ... It's not right how much Canadians have to pay for things. It's detrimental to quality of life, and it's harmful to Canadians in so many different ways." - Rebecca, Chicago, IL

"I am a graduate student and often order online through Amazon. Books are cheaper by a factor of two sometimes on Amazon.com vs. Amazon.ca. I feel cheated every time I have to use the Canadian online version of this retailer." - Prashant Dhiman, Toronto

"An oxygen sensor for Toyota Sequoia emission control was quoted at $284 from a Toyota dealer here in Victoria. The same part was $156 at a Toyota dealership in Seattle." - Bob, Victoria

"I bought winter tires last year. The price difference was outrageous. Made in USA. Bridgestone Blizzaks LM-25 P225/45 R17. The Costco Canada price is $335 each; the
Costco USA price is $215 each." - Richard, Saint-Jean-sur-Richelieu, Que.

" I requested pricing by e-mail from a Toyota dealer here in Calgary and another one in the U.S. The disparity is shocking! For example, a switch from the U.S. dealer was quoted at $59.98; the same switch from the Calgary dealer was $160.88." - Peter Wanhill, Calgary


Similar disparities have been allowed by the last three administrations between the USA with Europe and China. Funny how the news media doesn't report the entire story. But then they won't. Their intent is to defame President Trump at every turn in the road.

actionlynx's photo
Wed 09/26/18 09:52 AM
Don't forget that Nixon got rid of tariffs with China....and most of our cheaper goods now come from China. Plus American businesses have been investing there too.

And Nixon was a Republican.

Easttowest72's photo
Sat 09/29/18 05:54 AM
yesterday, I saw that piggly wiggly is taking applications. That's great. Those jobs are more for teenagers trying to earn spending money. In the past they've been tied up by adults trying to survive. It's a good indicator that the economy is doing well when adults can get good jobs that support their families, and teens can work for spending money. Trump 2020 :thumbsup:

indianadave4's photo
Sun 09/30/18 09:32 PM
Edited by indianadave4 on Sun 09/30/18 09:33 PM
In the last month or so the Canadian PM refused to agree with the idea of renegotiating NAFTA. Of course, the media ran constant news articles of how Canada won't and American manufactures and farmers will loose big time. The Canadian government had until midnight, October 1st to respond or face higher import duties.

Well, guess what????? what I just watched the late news (11:00pm EST) and the Canadian government capitulated at the last minute. The playing field will be a bit more level between our two nations now.

The news and democrat's would go to any lengths to stop our President from achieving his goal of "Leveling the playing field". So this raises the questions:

1. Why were the democrat's and media so opposed to having even trade tariffs?
2. Why did Clinton, Bush and Obama sign or agree to agreements that placed our farmers and industry at such a disadvantage with Canadian competitors? (as well as European, Mexican and Chinese)?

These three presidents were working against our own people!. People keep asking WHY but those that oppose the President never respond!

We can only assume they possess the "Anything to bring down President Trump" is okay irregardless of how it effects our nation!

indianadave4's photo
Sun 09/30/18 09:38 PM
Edited by indianadave4 on Sun 09/30/18 09:44 PM

Don't forget that Nixon got rid of tariffs with China....and most of our cheaper goods now come from China. Plus American businesses have been investing there too.

And Nixon was a Republican.


Let us remember that President Nixon opened China up to the real world. I don't doubt he did that as an incentive to win over Mao Tse-tung. Opening China up to the world was a huge accomplishment (at the time).

He, also, pulled us out of Vietnam. Two big accomplishments but he never received due credit because of Watergate.

Easttowest72's photo
Mon 10/01/18 12:46 AM

In the last month or so the Canadian PM refused to agree with the idea of renegotiating NAFTA. Of course, the media ran constant news articles of how Canada won't and American manufactures and farmers will loose big time. The Canadian government had until midnight, October 1st to respond or face higher import duties.

Well, guess what????? what I just watched the late news (11:00pm EST) and the Canadian government capitulated at the last minute. The playing field will be a bit more level between our two nations now.

The news and democrat's would go to any lengths to stop our President from achieving his goal of "Leveling the playing field". So this raises the questions:

1. Why were the democrat's and media so opposed to having even trade tariffs?
2. Why did Clinton, Bush and Obama sign or agree to agreements that placed our farmers and industry at such a disadvantage with Canadian competitors? (as well as European, Mexican and Chinese)?

These three presidents were working against our own people!. People keep asking WHY but those that oppose the President never respond!

We can only assume they possess the "Anything to bring down President Trump" is okay irregardless of how it effects our nation!


Democrats can't run on the welfare vote if people are working and supporting themselves. They are clearing trying to damage our country. It appears media has an agenda.

no photo
Mon 10/01/18 03:31 AM
The Dems love doom and dismal times. Fact is they can not stand prosperity under a republican president

And they spend their days trying to poke holes in it..as opposed to enjoying it

Professional..mourners

indianadave4's photo
Mon 10/01/18 02:20 PM
Democrats can't run on the welfare vote if people are working and supporting themselves. They are clearing trying to damage our country. It appears media has an agenda.


The Dems love doom and dismal times. Fact is they can not stand prosperity under a republican president

And they spend their days trying to poke holes in it..as opposed to enjoying it

Professional..mourners


^^^^^^^^^^^^ The question is why are the news media and democrat's like this??? what Those supporting them never address this issue. I have my opinion but that means little.

WHY?

no photo
Mon 10/01/18 02:52 PM

Democrats can't run on the welfare vote if people are working and supporting themselves. They are clearing trying to damage our country. It appears media has an agenda.


The Dems love doom and dismal times. Fact is they can not stand prosperity under a republican president

And they spend their days trying to poke holes in it..as opposed to enjoying it

Professional..mourners


^^^^^^^^^^^^ The question is why are the news media and democrat's like this??? what Those supporting them never address this issue. I have my opinion but that means little.

WHY?


Well for one reason. They can't see out if their backyard.
There is one poster here who gauged the economy because the little gas station in his small rural town closed down

Not that the gas is cheaper at other places around him and small independent stations have been closing down for years and replaced with bigger better stations..and cheaper had prices

Easttowest72's photo
Mon 10/01/18 02:55 PM
Democrats want the lazy people to vote for them. I think news media wants rating. Some of the thinks liberals come up with is so crazy it's entertaining to watch.

actionlynx's photo
Mon 10/01/18 04:37 PM
My point was that both Dems and Repubs are responsible for the shift in trade. It began under Truman and Eisenhower, and has snowballed ever since.

Remember, we had a recession under Nixon. Then one began under Carter, and rolled over into Reagan. Then one under Bush which rolled over into Clinton. Then one began under Clinton to rollover under Bush. So we can't just blame it on the President or a specific political party. It happens under both.

Truth is, both parties abuse the economic policies laid down by Keynes.

indianadave4's photo
Mon 10/01/18 08:00 PM
It seems like if President Trump cured cancer the media and the democrat's would still deny him credit. They don't care what good thing he does: they want him out and a liberal democrat (someone that's part of Washington) in his place. The deep state behind Washington wants him out no matter what.

Easttowest72's photo
Mon 10/01/18 11:09 PM
Edited by Easttowest72 on Mon 10/01/18 11:10 PM
The sheep in America are going along with the crazy liberal media. They don't appreciate the jobs and great economy. Africa is a shithole. That's why we send them money. The media tells the sheep it's racist and they follow along. They don't have the mentality to see Africa is a shithole for themselves.

Trump made some comments a long time ago about women letting men with money and power do whatever they want. The sheep think it's sexist. They can't see that women like stormy would go down on a donkey if it was wrapped in $100 bills. They can't think for themselves. They are offended because the media told them to be. They want the deep state back in power.