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Topic: We can't trust computer models
davidben1's photo
Tue 12/15/09 09:51 AM
it seems to actually access any true facts, there must first be a perfect, something "accessed" as a bar of perfect, to base any assumption of perfect, or just "accurate" upon...

it seems since current man has only been around a few thousand years, and the earth has been around billion's of years, that SINCE the earth has THE LONGEST ELAPSED TIME in EXISTENCE, than the earth itself must be maintained as the KING OR QUEEEN OF PERFECT...

if the earth HAS INDEED, been around for billion's of years, than what "itself" is doing, HAD TO HAVE HAPPENED IN A PRIOR TIME AS WELL???

as, just the odds of nothng "repeating" in billion's of years, such as climate change, goes against the earth based as perfect, and this allowing the sight that all weather we see NOW, AND HAVE ALWAYS SEEN OR EXPERIENCED, IS ALWAYS REPEATING???

so, then WEATHER on a large or grander scale, as a ENTIRETY, is repeating as well...

yes, assumption is being drawn here, that ALL THINGS REPEAT???

HOW CAN ONE CHECK THE LOGIC, TO SEE IF IT IS FOUNDED???

see if the same "principle of repeating", can be found IN OTHER THINGS???

if, one has found any TRUE ALWASY PREATING PRINCIPLE, OF THE EARTH, AND UNIVERSE, AND GALAXY, AND COSMOS, then such principle must NEVER CHANGE WHEN APPLIED TO ALL THINGS WITHIN THESE ENVIRONEMTS SPECIFIED???

so, on earth, we have ALL WEATHER REPEATING???

we have all volcano's repeating eruption???

we have all HUMAN HISTORY REPEATING???

we have the universe repeating, WHICH IS THE SAME AS EXPANDING???

we have many, that find evidence of "paradise" type climate, where dessert type climate exist now???

we have dino's found dead with tropical leaves in their mouth, but dug up out of a glacier???

and since the great minds, debate by saying "what the other guy say's, is a crock of ****"....

which means one side say's, nothing is changing, the other side, it IS changing....

for either side, to dispute the other, show no true insight that ALL things are changing EACH SECOND, and that ALL THINGS EFFECT WHAT IT COME IN CONTACT WITH, WITHIN IT ENVIRONMENT, AND SINCE "ALL" ENVVIRONMENTS, "TOUCH ANOTHER ENVIRONMENT, THEN ALL ENVIRONMENTS EFFECT, SO CONTROL, SO CHANGE, THE NEXT, or the law of physic's itself is broken, as if SOMETHING MOVE, IT MUST EFFECT WHAT IT EXIST BESIDE???

so, our experts we see, can only be blind, to the simplest of principle's of space, and matter, if they are peering TO INTENTLY AT A "AN AGENDA", and it is obvious this agenda, IS ABOUT WHAT ONLY "SOME" believe....

if one takes all data, as having merit, what can be found to be most accurate, far superseeds what AGENDA DRIVEN EYE'S CAN SEE, OR EVER FIND....

agenda for SOME POINTS OF VIEW, can only find ACCURATE DATA FOR SOME, and since the EARTH, AND UNIVERSE, was created for all, since it is here, then acknonwledging it indeed was created SOMEHOW, someway, and if ALL HERE LIVE ON IT, THAN "ALL" ARE ENTITLED TO HAVE A STAKE IN IT'S DISCOVERY OF FACTS, of it's cycles and methods of operation's....

too tired to edit....

take for it's own worth

just one cent






InvictusV's photo
Tue 12/15/09 12:06 PM
I find it ironic that they admit models aren't very accurate at predicting the temperature a week from now, but are real reliable predicting the temperatures 50 years from now..

I mean... how fning ridiculous is that?

Dragoness's photo
Tue 12/15/09 12:23 PM
Considering that the planet is going to change temps anyway as part of it's natural cycle and we know we contribute to the poisoning of this planet.

The fact that changes are acomin' is not disputable and the fact we need to clean up our act because WE NEED THIS PLANET TO LIVE is also not disputable.

We need to do the things we need to do to stop poisoning what we need to live and we need to try to anticipate the changes this planet is going to have so we can be as prepared as possible for it.

willing2's photo
Tue 12/15/09 12:31 PM

I find it ironic that they admit models aren't very accurate at predicting the temperature a week from now, but are real reliable predicting the temperatures 50 years from now..

I mean... how fning ridiculous is that?

So true!!drinker
BTW, I see your movie is being advertised for release soon.
Invictus with Morgan Freeman.

davidben1's photo
Tue 12/15/09 01:13 PM
to even begin to try to say what is "poison" to the atmosphere, and what is "not poison", is to first leave any true logic of earth itself???

what is logic to begin with???

it must be absed upon "never changing principle", that apply to all things equally, without any break in principle, when they are indeed applied to all things???

before this can be done, the "measuring bar" of accuracy has to be first accessed, or there not being such, prove the words spoken, being the hypothesis spoken, being the opinion spoken, is merely a "re-telling' of other's words heard, which in no way dictates whihc words are most accurate, as if words first attempt to make this fact believed, this in itself show words only coming from a mouth who's words are based on but some of the words itself heard since lifetime as having merit, and so this show and tell that the words are based upon "personal conjecture", which be nothing but personal feeling's dicating to a brain, what words it wishes to believe, and so this prove that such words are not indeed based in any logic, as to even claim one speak with logic, than it HAS TO BE ABLE TO KNOW WHAT >MEASURE OR BAR<, that ITSELF USED TO BASE IT'S ******OWN LOGIC UPON*******

the measure any of one human's logic, being the "ultimate authority", that itself "recieve data from as accurate"???

all logic of the COSMOS, AND GALAXIES, UNIVERSE, AND YES, EVEN EARTH, would have to be built upon ALL THESE THINGS LISTED AS INDEFINITE???

since, no human was lasted in present state, for more than about a 100 years or so, and these things listes, as pieces of the many cosmos that exist, we find each day as man has "evolved", to be as longer lasting than yesterday thought, than the SAFEST BET, THE MOST LOGICAL BET, THE MOST SANE BET, THE MOST LONG LASTING BET, is to assume with ALL GOOD MERIT, that earth CANNOT BE DESTROYED, IF IT IS NOT SUPPOSED TO BE???

as in, destruction IS NOT A EVIL, EXCEPT TO THAT WHICH FEAR IT'S OWN DEATH???

so, we have many maniac's, running around screaming bloody murder shall ensue because of man's horrific deeds, but alas, we see each of these makes it's own logic, which is founded and based in fear of it's own death, AS GREATER LOGIC THAN THE COSMOS ITSELF, AND THE EARTH ITSELF, where IF THERE IS A FORREST FIRE, IT RENEW, and if there be a volcano, it renew, and if there be planetary changes along with earth changes, then many aspects of the facts have changed....

indeed, all planets are heating up, not just the surface of earth, and from this we can deduct with all logic, that this could not be happening because of ONLY HUMAN EMIMSSION'S, and indeed, to look further, when the universe heat up, it can only come from any quickening or speeding up of process's, as we are so focused on "emission's" as the demon, that the very simplest of laws of physic's have actually been totally ignored, so then not investigated to see if there be BIGGER REASONS the planet is heating up....

yes, it heats up and cools down, again and again, SO THE "SPOT IN TIME", THAT ONE LOOK AT, DECIDE THE CONCLUSION ONE WILL DECIDE AS FACT???

so, TO BYPASS THAT NATURAL INCLINATION, of being INPUT INTO THE CONCLUSION, ONE WOULD HAVE TO LOOK AT "ALL TIME AS A WHOLE"???

we can't do that physically, having no records to do so???

so, again, we are forced, by way of logical INCLUSION OF ALL FACTS AS RELEVANT, ALL FACTS AS HAVING SOME MERIT, which indeed expose the biased and pre-disposed easily, the single or self minded or only some minded one's, as only wishing to prove their own point, and the point of what SOME BELIEVE....

OF COURSE, these that do such, will have never accessed all data as PERFECT IN INCEPTION, so then will not have allowed their mind to EVEN ACCESS OTHER DATA AS FOR MERIT, AND SO SPEAK ONLY OPINION'S, NOT USING ANY LOGIC AT ALL, except to believe they speak with logic, which most goes to prove there exist no logic, as again, IF ONE HAS FORMULATED ANY LOGIC OF ITSELF, THAN IT WOULD NATURALLY KNOW WHAT IT'S ULTIMATE BAR TO MEASURE ALL DATA WAS???

some say science, some say religion, some just claim logic in and of itself, not seeing this lead to total self delusion, or self computing all it's own data as surpreme, and all other's as nonsense, and it cannot be missed, that the more data one deem as nonsesen, the less sense, or other's sense, they allow into the mind, so indeed, this way of thinking would make for more none sense for sure....

well, all that aside, but spoken because the essence of HOW AND WHAT ONE BASE IT'S DATA ON, IS MORE IMPORTANT THAN THE DATA ITSELF???

well, since earth is longer established than human, than earth, and all surrounding environments of earth, must be the basis for anything deemded logical about earth, and then about WHAT IS HAPPENING ON EARTH, AS MAN "IS PART OF EATH", OR THERE IS NO LOGIC THAT CAN BE INTERTWINED WITH EARTH, OR THE COSMOS AS A WHOLE???

all of man's accessments, are being taken as IF MAN IS NOT PART OF EARTH ITSELF, AND MAN'S NATURE, OR AMBITION, OR DRIVE, AS WELL, NOT PART OF THE EARTH???

this in inception, show the logic used to formulate many of these "part" truth's, as WHOLE AND ENTIRE TRUTH, IS FLAWED EVEN IN BEGINNING PREMISE???

earth is earth, and each thing on it that is alive, or not man made, is called nature, and man is part of that anture just as much as a tree or flower or lake or ocean, or THE ENTIRETY OF ALL THINGS IS IS FIRST BROKEN INTO MANY PIECES, WHICH MAKE IT IMPOSSIBLE TO SEE ANY WHOLE STORY, OR HISTORY, OR HAPPENING'S, OR FUTURE, in any MOST TRUE POSSIBLE accuracy...

so, it is purported that "human's", living on earth, are poisoning earth???

it would seem indeed we are, just as was intended by earth itself, as to not call man part of earth, is to wonder who one actually thinks oneself to be, and this call more into question the facalties one is using to first access man as something else, and as wiser, and knowing more, in it's own opinion and idea, than what all the earth, and galaxies, and cosmos itself dictate, and as such, understandable it was once said man creates's hell for one another with self pride, lol....

it seems to be, if all points in the cosmos are ANY GOOD INDICATION OF WHAT EXIST AND SHALL EXIST, mankind is simply ready for a new explosion of great knowing, that shall make einstein seem as a ignorant youth of day's past, and the many laws of basic physic's collectively overlooked, shall surely have to come into the light, the many things that were proven simply to promote the agenda most wished to be purposed and prospered, for self pride sake, for the sake of money, for the sake of legacy, for the sake of power, for the sake of empire, and the revealing of what is more, shall be astounding, and as such, logically, the physical abilites that shall have to coincide with that, phenomenal, to say the least, as what MAN KNOW, DECIDE WHAT MAN CAN DO WITH IT'S OWN SELF, IN ALL CASES THAT HUMANLY EXIST....

no edit

one cent


Fanta46's photo
Tue 12/15/09 07:16 PM

Models are only as reliable as the data entered. Garbage in, garbage out...

And being that the weather guys can't even predict rainfall accurately, I'm not trusting anything that involves the sketchy figures that these models usem. I mean, monday they were predicting a 70% chance oif rain on thursday, but it didn't come until friday. If they can't be accurate on that short a timeframe, how can they predict it 100 years down the road?

Put down the kool-aid.



It surprises me that you'd doubt computer modeling when that's exactly how economist predict world economic trends.

davidben1's photo
Tue 12/15/09 07:30 PM


Models are only as reliable as the data entered. Garbage in, garbage out...

And being that the weather guys can't even predict rainfall accurately, I'm not trusting anything that involves the sketchy figures that these models usem. I mean, monday they were predicting a 70% chance oif rain on thursday, but it didn't come until friday. If they can't be accurate on that short a timeframe, how can they predict it 100 years down the road?

Put down the kool-aid.



It surprises me that you'd doubt computer modeling when that's exactly how economist predict world economic trends.


indeed true fanta, but how can we miss, that our economies are shaking in their corrupted worn out boots, even the heads of galss houses full of doubt of each other's motives, which make it all a greed grab, by the strong hands that feed the arm's of the common, all along singing a stimulous song....


Fanta46's photo
Tue 12/15/09 07:36 PM



Models are only as reliable as the data entered. Garbage in, garbage out...

And being that the weather guys can't even predict rainfall accurately, I'm not trusting anything that involves the sketchy figures that these models usem. I mean, monday they were predicting a 70% chance oif rain on thursday, but it didn't come until friday. If they can't be accurate on that short a timeframe, how can they predict it 100 years down the road?

Put down the kool-aid.



It surprises me that you'd doubt computer modeling when that's exactly how economist predict world economic trends.


indeed true fanta, but how can we miss, that our economies are shaking in their corrupted worn out boots, even the heads of galss houses full of doubt of each other's motives, which make it all a greed grab, by the strong hands that feed the arm's of the common, all along singing a stimulous song....




The Models and many experts did predict the economic fall. As well as the reasons.
The warnings were just ignored.
Kinda like this Climate Change warning is being ignored, and
by the same people.

davidben1's photo
Tue 12/15/09 07:50 PM
it's all true, each word spoken in the universe, but since the story of the true future, must be seen FIRST, to know which angle to input all the pieces of the puzzle into place, the many and all words spoken since man began, well, to make the whole story of all words fit into the true reality, of the true whole earth as one commmon group, there has to first be a perception that did not or could not exist in times past, simply due to less population in days past, that the true future must be able to involve all that ever lived oin earth, and as such, this indeed would change the "doom" that many have accessed "climate change to mean", as remember, it is only bad if ONE DOES NOT WISH TO DIE, and self preservation alone is the smallest thing to build intelligence upon, or, to use to see any larger possibilities, so, then one must BACK UP IN TIME TO THE PRESENT DAY, and then one can see one thing is certain, that the future is good, and would be seen wheh it is found what can inlcude all alive, all perception's. all thjeories, all conumdrum's, all physic's, and happening in the earth as a whole, AS POSITIVE, as part of the evolving of man that has been occuring for ever and ever and ever, as what data do we have that it has NOT ALWAYS BEEN HAPPENING????

NOT ONE STICTCH...

Fanta46's photo
Tue 12/15/09 08:12 PM
Wrong!

We have more than 28,000 sets of data confirming Climate Change is happening since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution at a rate never before seen on earth.

Fanta46's photo
Tue 12/15/09 08:14 PM
For those who doubt the validity of computer models to predict climate change should take note.

The validity of models can be tested against climate history. If they can predict the past (which the best models are pretty good at) they are probably on the right track for predicting the future - and indeed have successfully done so.

JustAGuy2112's photo
Tue 12/15/09 09:13 PM

Wrong!

We have more than 28,000 sets of data confirming Climate Change is happening since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution at a rate never before seen on earth.


And for the ( what seems like ) thousandth time...

The data is imperfect or doesn't actually SAY what they WANT it to say, so they massaged it.

That makes that data unreliable at best.

The DATA says that the Earth has been COOLING for several years.

Of course, that doesn't agree with what you believe, so you dismiss it.

JustAGuy2112's photo
Tue 12/15/09 09:19 PM

For those who doubt the validity of computer models to predict climate change should take note.

The validity of models can be tested against climate history. If they can predict the past (which the best models are pretty good at) they are probably on the right track for predicting the future - and indeed have successfully done so.



No. They can't.

How many times must you be informed that the models are only as good as the HUMAN hands that import the data???

Some of the models were based on data that was " fixed " by human hands to get the results they needed them to.

How in the blue hell could you possibly say that the models have " successfully " predicted the future when the future isn't even HERE yet??

Oh...and just another " Gospel According To Al Gore " moment for you.

He recently said that there is a " 75% chance " that the Arctic Ice cap, during the summer months, would be completely gone within 5 to 7 years.

But...the SCIENTIST he had a conversation with, upon which his statement was made, has said the he ( the scientists ) would NEVER say something like that with that kind of certainty.

Just another example of Al Gore being so full of crap that he squeaks.

Fanta46's photo
Tue 12/15/09 09:27 PM
Clouded judgement
Climate modellers may occasionally be seduced by the beauty of their constructions and put too much faith in them.

Where the critics of the models are both wrong and illogical, however, is in assuming that the models must be biased towards alarmism - that is, greater climate change. It is just as likely that these models err on the side of caution.

JustAGuy2112's photo
Tue 12/15/09 09:35 PM

Clouded judgement
Climate modellers may occasionally be seduced by the beauty of their constructions and put too much faith in them.

Where the critics of the models are both wrong and illogical, however, is in assuming that the models must be biased towards alarmism - that is, greater climate change. It is just as likely that these models err on the side of caution.



Dude. Have you been paying ANY attention at ALL to what I have posted about the models???

It doesn't matter on WHICH SIDE they go. The fact is that no HUMAN could EVER take into account all of the variables involved in what makes our climate tick.

therefore, ALL computer models are inherently flawed. Therefore, unreliable.

davidben1's photo
Tue 12/15/09 10:58 PM

Wrong!

We have more than 28,000 sets of data confirming Climate Change is happening since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution at a rate never before seen on earth.


understood....

i can see exactely what you mean, as in "wrong", heating increased since industrial revolution....

what i am referring to, is what evidence do we have, that this whole entire "time", all as ONE TIME in space, HAS NOT HAPPENED over and over....

you are basing the total thing called "present most truth", on only "current man" happening's, and since TIME, BASED UPON THE EARTH ITSELF, IS MUCH LONGER, BILLION'S OF YEARS, then in this way, WHAT EVIDENCE DO WE HAVE THAT THE WHOLE ENTIRE CURRENT SCENARIO, is not always repeating, over and over....

there is MORE EVIDENCE, that proves this IS THE CASE, IF ONE LOOK AT THE PRINCIPLES THAT GOVERN, rather than peering at the "SPECIFIC ACTION'S", OR HAPPENINGS, as the other post attempts to detail, no matter how inadequate such attempt was, lol....

it seems at this point in time, many do now agree, the cosmos is expanding, which is the same in all essence as growing, or "repeating"???

it seems human man keep's repeating, even after what "appear's" to be, having limited data, as extinction's, BUT WE KNOW SUCH DID NOT HAPPEN, OR "NONE" HERE, would be here now???

it seems all human behaviour, as in history repeating, is well documented, so another evidence of a "never ending principle"???

it appears all phenomenon of all weather, and all nature, is always repeating???

so, with all these things, all happening within the earth, alway's repeating, why would one deem one thing, such as in "current climate change", as the one LONE THING ISOLATED, AND IT NOT AS WELL BE APPLIED TO THE LARGER, EVER REPEATING ASPECT, OF "ALL" HUMAN AND EARTH HAPPENINGS, OR CYCLE???

it is more illogical, to leave this ONE THING OUT, as being a "new" thing to us, and in ONE WAY, IT IS NEW, TO THE CURRENT ERA, to OUR EYE'S, BUT CERTAINLY NOT TO THE TOTAL ERA OF ALL HUMAN AND EARTH HAPPENINGS???

we have the sun repeating cycle's every 12 years, we have the winter and summer always repeating, we have night and day repeating as seperate broken entities, always repeating....

LOOK AROUND, EACH THING ONE LOOKS AT IS REPEATING, IN SOME WAY SHAPE OR FORM, no matter what it is....

then we here statements once written that "there is nothing new under the sun", and many past writing's telling of an imminent change about the time of the end of our earth rotational wobble???

we have all religion's, telling of a "god" realm, where all HAS NO BEGINNING AND NO ENDING???

tales of the fountain of youth, which is the same, as ALL THINGS REPEATING???

myths of eternal creatures, that do not die, some describing as vampires, some describing as greek gods, some describing as angels...

all of these things simply a "repeating" of the same essence that all things are, and always have been, repeating, in regards to all human and planetary and comis evolution....

it seems about time, that all words are just added up, taking away the "boxe's", the labels of each type speech, seperating words into categories of different speech, and for man to get smart enough to realize that this is in itself creating bias towards DATA, and seperating data POSSIBLE TO BE FIGURED OUT, BUT MAN ITSELF....

IT'S AS IF THE MENTALITY, TO SCOFF AT OTHER DATA IS STILL THERE, AND JUST AS PRIMITIVE AS WHEN IT WAS SCOFFED AT THE MAN MIGHT BE ABLE TO FLY IN THE SKY....

OR THAT THE EARTH WAS ROUND....

there is just too much that can be seen to be ever repeating, to look at one spot in time, that WE HAPPEN TO BE "STANDING IN", RIGHT NOW, and deem this as some TOTALLY NEW PHENONENON, THAT HAS NEVER OCCURED IN THE EARTH'S TOTAL PAST HISTORY, AND NOT SEE THAT GOES AGAINST ANY LOGIC THAT BLENDS WITH ALL THAT IS OCCURING IN THE VERY PLACE WE LIVE, AND IN EVERY OTHER PLACE THAT ****ING EXIST....

if that were not enough repeating of occurance, then we cannot miss we have many "discover's" of data, telling of findings, as mentioned earlier, of tropical animals found buried under ice, with tropical plants in their mouth???

it seems that the more one add up ALL EVIDENCE, not just some, the more it become's apparent that all words written by all ancient's, are indeed correct and accurate statements, and it is more how to fit all these together into one large puzzle, if we are to find out the real story of the most reason that all things that happen in the earth are happening for....

so again, agreed, there is no need to dispute higher human emission's do exist, and no need to discount the work and intelligence of other's, that are just as credible and worthy as self's own data brain, but rather to see if there be a larger picture that can exist....








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