Prosperity may not be just around the corner, but statistical evidence is mounting to suggest that the worst of this recession may soon be past.

And before you inundate me with email alleging that I am out of touch with the real world, let me say right at the top that I am not for one moment saying that the economy has stopped sliding. I am only suggesting that it appears to be contracting at a slower pace.

Clearly, this has nothing whatsoever to do with the stimulus package that the president signed into law last week. As a matter of fact, if the recession does end within the next few months, it will probably be in spite of this package, rather than because of it.

If you want a policy to credit, it's monetary policy. The combination of liquidity that the Federal Reserve has pumped into the economy, along with its special lending programs and capital injections into the banks, is largely responsible.
But you want more than assertions; you want proof. And here it is:

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The Conference Board's index of leading economic indicators has risen for two months in a row.
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Producer prices have increased for two straight months.
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Consumer prices rose in January -- the first monthly gain in six months.
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The Baltic Dry Index, which measures the cost of shipping key raw materials like copper, steel and iron, has more than doubled from its recent lows.
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Existing-home sales rose in December, and participants in our weekly survey think that another rise took place in January.
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Pending home sales went up in December.
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Builders' confidence inched up this month.
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Thanks to lower interest rates, applications for both new mortgages and refinancings of existing mortgages are rising.
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Real hourly earnings rose 4.5% in December following a 3.3% increase in November.
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An index of consumer expectations rose in January.
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Retail sales shot up by 1% in January -- the first monthly rise since June.
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The decline in consumer credit moderated in the latest month.
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New orders for consumer and nonmilitary capital goods went up in January.
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The ISM index of manufacturing went up last month.
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The ISM index of services rose last month for the second month in a row.
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The money supply is soaring, a sign that there's plenty of liquidity in the economy.
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The 3-month London interbank offered rate, a measure of banks' willingness to lend to each other, has dropped to 1.2% from close to 5% a number of weeks ago.
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Other measures of the state of the financial markets, like the TED spread and the 2-year swap spread are down, as well.
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Prices of credit default swaps for banks have fallen from their peaks.
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The corporate-bond markets are thawing out, too; some $127 billion in dollar-denominated debt was issued in January, the most for any month since last May.
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Some securities on banks' books are starting to recover in value.

All this said, the economy is still a long way from a pink-cheeked state of health. But remember, you've got to crawl before you can walk. And it looks like the economy is about to do just that.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/evidence-mounts-recessions-worst-past/story.aspx?guid={71467556-3683-4018-906C-7FFC8A3F9E8C}&dist=TNMostRead
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It's contracting slower.... until this stimulus hits Expect prices to skyrocket....


Not to mention the tax hikes....

these higher prices are not due to consumer confidence!! they are due to devaluation of the dollar. which is caused by inflating the money supply. when something costs more today than it did yesterday, it means that the dollar has devalued from what it was yesterday and now requires more dollars to purchase. i understand that this person is looking at the level of businesses. but he is not taking into effect that at some point, because of the speculation that is causing these companies to layoff and go cupput, there is not going to be anyone that will be able to afford these higher priced items. i can set up a store and charge more for my products but that isn't a measurement of how well my company is doing. i may never get anything sold at that price, and if i do, sales will still be decreased enough to make the price rise not viable. my sister's husband is going through that now.

This moment in history allows us an unique opportunity to see the result of policy of taxation to death.

Normally, as any socialist would argue, we pay taxes and it is a price of living in a socialism, where we have a high level of life. He would argue, that we are not poor, and that for all that we have, we should be thankful to our wise government and socialism, in particular, driven forward by a taxation that is wiping out anything one struggles to make.

But pay attention.
If you do not see this now, you won't ever know for sure.
If you are paying attention, remember this.

What do we have? We have a slight slide in prices on the housing market. That is it.

We do not have any other problem, that we didn't have when the market was on it's top, houses cost dearly, and the life was full of joy.

What this means. This means, that an American has been successfully wiped out by the government. This means, that we are dirt poor. It means that ALL that we have, or used to have, was due to a credit line that Americans had on their houses.

Remove that credit line, and we have nothing at all. The whole economy stopped, because of this. If, Americans were rich, as suggested by those who approve socialism, then this would not have happened. We would still continue to consume in ever larger doses.

So, as it was frequently quoted, we have allowed central bank, and now, we have awaken poor on the continent that our fathers have conquered.

This precise truth, is what is destroying the system today. Many have been guessing that, but no one knew for sure, that America is gone.

This is the opportunity to see what we are without a credit card.

This is important, because if I had a nerve to bring it up in any discussion any time before or after this period we live in, I would be laughed at.

It would be said that such is impossible to stop the economy by simply removing the credit card.

This is why it is important to remember as the truth, so that you are able to build your action plan anytime in the future, when again, nobody ever will agree with you that such is even possible, much less actually is an undisputed fact.

and mark my words, this bailout crap is going to be the beginning of us paying our rent straight to the government. so far everyone they have helped out had to forfeit a peice of ownership for the chance to stay afloat. you think they own you now, just wait till they have bought and paid for you like an indentured servant. then tell me how sweet obama's honey really is.

I don't think it's slowing down, I just think we are getting used to it and making adjustments.

astute observation!!

What is slowing down?

Either home prices have to fall or the prices of everything else (that means labor) have to rise.

Thus, we have a ditch to cross, until either of these two conditions is realized.

Obama is trying to ease the pain, and help the home price decline to slow down. In the mean time, we are consuming our rainy day funds.

Now, one can think of it as of crossing a pool underwater. You can do it on one breath, and be done with it.

Or, you can slow down your swimming, and take an hour to cross to the other side. You will be out of breath, by the time you get that accomplished.

the home price decline won't slow down by throwing money at the problem. unless you count throwing money at it as community reinvestment loans. lol

very very interesting
what on earth can we do to CHANGE things...
or to jsut survive???

all we can do is sit back hold on and hope for the best . there is no quick sollution to this problem bush burried us so deep it's going to take alot of digging.

lmao!!!!!!!!! dan i don't think you realized what you just said, but it is conducive to the way people think right now. omg im laughing!!!!




i don't know where you went to school, but where i went we were taught you can't dig youself out of a hole!!!! lmao.


but that is so funny because that's what obama is doing lmao!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

lol my point was is there is no quick way to get us out of the hole . do you like it is going to tke a while to climb out of the darkness of the evil zionist empire better lol .

WOW....I want whatever Crick is smoking...that stuff must be real good

lol, thats more like it.

i thought so lol