Week 5 in the NFL. The league where they play for pay.

*Washington @ Carolina Carolina -3.5

The Redskins might be the worst 2-2 NFL team in my memory. The Panthers have had two weeks to prepare. Look for Carolina to get their first win and cover easily.

Minnesota @ St. Louis Minnesota -10

Minnesota needs to stay focused here and not look ahead to next week's war with Baltimore. It is the classic trap game, but the Rams are so bad that I cannot see any hope of an upset. The question is does Minnesota cover? I'd say yes. Take the Favres and lay the points.

Dallas @ Kansas City Dallas -8

The 'boys are a mess. I understand the fans anger and frustration but do not blame the QB. It all starts from the top. I thought the Wade Phillips hiring was a bad one from day one. He is not a leader of men. Still, the Cowboys are talented enough to win this game on the road against a bad team. Once again, the real question should be, will Dallas cover? I'd stay away from that fast sinking ship. Look for the Chiefs to keep it respectable. Take the Chiefs and the points.

Tampa Bay @ Philadelphia Philadelphia -15

The Bucs are awful. The Eagles are getting Mcnabb and Westbrook back. The Eagles have had two weeks to prepare and cannot lose or they risk the division crown getting out of reach. This should be a statement game for the Eagles. They win big and cover the huge spread.


Oakland @ NY Giants NY Giants -14.5

Another game where picking the winner is a no-brainer, but the spread is huge. The Raiders may have the worst NFL QB I've ever seen. Most of the high school quarterbacks I've seen have better mechanics. Lack of work ethic and poor coaching by Hackett are to blame. I suspect that despite the fact the Giants are very banged up on defense the Raiders offense will not score a touchdown. No matter who is the QB the Giants should be able to run the ball effectively. All in all it looks to me that the Giants should be able cover the big number.

**Cleveland @ Buffalo Buffalo -6

The Bills disappointed last week. Look for them to bounce back and stomp all over the hapless Browns.

Cincinnati @ Baltimore Baltimore -8.5

I'm starting to believe in the Bengals. Palmer looks healthy for the first time in a couple of years. The Ravens are banged up on the offensive line. Baltimore should win, but look for Cincinatti to keep it interesting. Take the Bengals and the points.

*Pittsburgh @ Detroit Pittsburgh -10.5

The Steelers are healthier then they've been since week one. I took the Lions last week much to my chagrin. I'm off them for the year. Steelers win and cover easily.

Atlanta @ San Francisco San Francisco -2.5

I've been back and forth about this one all week. San Francisco does have a lot of talent. However, I'm still unsure how real the Niners are. I do know the Falcons have a lot more trouble scoring on the road than in Atlanta. This is possibly the most interesting game of the week. Take the Niners and lay the points.

New England @ Denver New England -3

I've been wrong about Denver. Their defense does look to be big time. However, Brady finally looked close to himself last week. The teacher gives the student another lesson. Mcdaniel is not yet ready to take on the master. The Patriots win and cover in what should be a very entertaining game.

Houston @ At Arizona Arizona -5.5

Arizona needs a win badly this week. A Niner win and a Cardinal loss will put Arizona's chances of repeating as division champs in danger. I'm really up in air about this game. Look for Arizona's struggling offense to get untracked in a high scoring game. Take the Cardinals and lay the points.

Jacksonville @ Seattle Pick-em

Is Hasselback healthy? Can he stay healthy for an entire game? Flip a coin. If I was a gambling man I'd stay away from this one, but since I have to choose a team since they looked so impressive last week I'll take the Jaguars.

Indianapolis @ Tennessee Indianapolis -4

The best player in the NFL is at the top of his game. Tennessee cannot stop any offense from moving the ball let alone one that is led by the great Peyton Manning. Indy stays undefeated and wins easily.

*NY Jets@ Miami NY Jets -1.5

I'm not sure if the acquisiton of Braylon Edwards will have a direct impact on the Jets offense, but there is no doubt Miami now will not be able to keep a safety in the box. This should finally open up the Jets running game. The Jets best pass rusher, Calvin Pace, is back. Extra pressure on the Miami QB may mean less blitzing and better opportunities to shut down the Dolphins running game. If the Jets want to play with the big boys they need to win divisional games. The Jets win and cover on Monday night in Miami.

And my man, Ronnie Brown makes the winning touch!

I should never ever ever ever ever ever play the Jets. When I actually used to gamble the NFL I was the grandfather of all jinxers. No matter how well or badly I was doing if I played the Jets I lost that bet. It never matters if they are giving or getting points.

8-6 and 7-7 last week...


That makes 31-12 picking winners and 23-21 vs. the spread.

Not great...

Just my opinion, but I think you should post a separate topic for each week. I don't know that I can really give you a good reason for this belief, so I hope you don't mind me giving unsolicited and unsubstantiated advice.

As far as the subject matter, I've been picking games for years, but I've never done it with the spread until this year. I'm doing OK, although Week 5 was not good for me (6-8 ATS). My favorite way to pick games is with "confidence points", picking games straight up but assigning a unique value of 1 through 16/14/13 (depending on how many games are played that week) on each game, with "1" being the game in which you have the least confidence in your pick, and the high number being the one in which you have the most confidence. I do this in a few large groups (50 people) on Yahoo, and last season, I placed first or second in all of my groups.

I, too, have learned the lesson of picking with one's heart, rather than one's head. I'm an Eagles fan, and I have been burned several times in the past picking them to win with very high confidence.

Enjoy the rest of the season!