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Topic: 2 Trillion.
nogames39's photo
Sat 02/28/09 03:00 PM
Edited by nogames39 on Sat 02/28/09 03:01 PM
Right.

I don't think private debt matters.

Also, are we sure these debt figures do not cross-extinguish themselves?

On contingencies, I would say that if we were to judge by latest developments, I would have to rate those contingencies as "very probable, almost definitely expected". This is because we have seen the bail-outs of banks, corporations and GSEs, which had not even abated yet.

AndrewAV's photo
Sat 02/28/09 03:08 PM

Right.

I don't think private debt matters.

Also, are we sure these debt figures do not cross-extinguish themselves?

On contingencies, I would say that if we were to judge by latest developments, I would have to rate those contingencies as "very probable, almost definitely expected". This is because we have seen the bail-outs of banks, corporations and GSEs, which had not even abated yet.


well they do work themselves backwards but those numbers are 2007 or so and quite outdated. Our current liabilities are near the $11T mark with the states likely in the $2.5-3.0T range.

So, essentially, the numbers that are out are correct as far as I can tell, however, I'm not sure how much of the debt is repetitive (from bank to business to business/individual) or if the money borrowed by the fed (which, like I said, is not government but gets money from ours) is in the national debt figures.

And yes, those contingency figures are analyzed by the government agencies as likely expenses. if we spend like we are now and follow this path being laid before us, medicaid will have no contingency expenses as it will be replaced by the nationalized health care expenses which, I guarantee, are going to be exponentially higher.

nogames39's photo
Sat 02/28/09 03:56 PM

If we spend like we are now and follow this path being laid before us, medicaid will have no contingency expenses as it will be replaced by the nationalized health care expenses which, I guarantee, are going to be exponentially higher.


You can bet on that.

nogames39's photo
Sat 02/28/09 03:57 PM
You have said earlier that GAAP are not applicable to the government. Whys is it so?

AndrewAV's photo
Sat 02/28/09 04:16 PM
As far as I know, the standard is to keep the private sector aligned. keep in mind this only applies to financial accountants (those that work with numbers after the fact prepping financial statements, etc.) and not internal uses for purposes such as budgetary accounting.

With many federal agencies, I know there are specific statutory standards the accountants have to work off. For the most part, as I just looked into it a little, the government seems to hold to the GAAP standards provided there are no statutory limitations.

I've specialized in the managerial side of accounting thus far so I'm not too up to speed on all the regulations. I start studying auditing soon and I'm sure there's a lot more about the standard there.

nogames39's photo
Sat 02/28/09 04:23 PM
Understood.

It seems they are hiding things. If anything, the standards for the government should be few times more stringent than those on private business.

It think so, because, we have a choice of not investing in private firm, if we happen to think that they *may* be hiding something off their balance sheets. We have no such choice with the government. Therefore, the government should be forced to prove everything really clear, account for every penny, and at the same time under much heavier punishment for non-compliance.

SacramentAl's photo
Sat 02/28/09 04:26 PM
I find it odd that people aren't panicked by this, and not preparing some sort of contingency plan for when the crap really hits the fan.

nogames39's photo
Sat 02/28/09 04:27 PM
This is so to say an academic debate. This debt has no meaning whatsoever. It is not going to ever be paid off, and it doesn't needs to be.

Do not panic.

SacramentAl's photo
Sat 02/28/09 04:29 PM
That's not what I'd heard. China is moving in on us big time. Besides, resources are starting to dwindle and we've got way too many people to sustain. The debt's just the beginning, but it's not putting us in a favorable position for when the sun starts to set.

nogames39's photo
Sat 02/28/09 04:37 PM
You've heard it from someone who did not study the subject very well.

Our debt to china is a lot smaller number and was not part of this conversation. And even if it was, that debt is not secured. Therefore there is no worry. In those instances when it was secured, then the asset will be taken, erasing the debt.

Our problem is not any of this debts, but our falling productivity, and then further, our ever increasing rate of wasting of whatever remaining productivity there is. In other words, the socialist cancer is in it's terminal phase.

Resources do not dwindle. This is a definite sign of someone who does not know what he is talking about. Don't worry. There is no such thing as "dwindling resources". Our entire planet is made out of resources, if you'd like to consider something as tiny as that.

We've had too many people to sustain since times immemorial. Never was a problem. Another piece of propaganda.

So, take it easy, man.

SacramentAl's photo
Sat 02/28/09 04:45 PM
Now I'm wondering where YOU got your research. There's a finite amount of fossil fuels, coal and natural gas, and silicon and clean water. How can you say that resources aren't dwindling? We already hit our peak and now we're tumbling downhill. This kind of lifestyle isn't going to last forever and we're already seeing the end of it coming. About all we'll be able to rely on is our military to get what we want from the few others who aren't armed the way we are.

AndrewAV's photo
Sat 02/28/09 04:58 PM
Edited by AndrewAV on Sat 02/28/09 04:59 PM
Check that earlier link. It shows that of all our debt, not even 25% of it is to foreign nations. The largest amount owed to foreign nations is the private sector. I'm one of those because my truck was financed through Toyota (at least I assume, not sure if it's actually US based funds) and many companies buy manufactured goods from other nations. This increases that foreign debt. It is nothing to worry about. They owe us money all the same. Debt does not pay off one to one. it's all about the holders and there are many on both sides.

As for resources, economics teaches that everything is scarce. Dwindling means they are running low and I assure you that is not happening. The supply may be dwindling but the resources are not. The supply is controlled by those that grow/mine the resource and nothing else. Nothing lasts forever - by the time we exhaust oil resources, we'll be far beyond the need for oil. Natural gas is still in abundance and clean water can be processed.

Debt is a natural part of the system. The extent that ours keeps growing, however, is not and is potential for a lot of inflation down the road as we attempt to print enough money to pay for it.

AndrewAV's photo
Sat 02/28/09 05:01 PM

Understood.

It seems they are hiding things. If anything, the standards for the government should be few times more stringent than those on private business.

It think so, because, we have a choice of not investing in private firm, if we happen to think that they *may* be hiding something off their balance sheets. We have no such choice with the government. Therefore, the government should be forced to prove everything really clear, account for every penny, and at the same time under much heavier punishment for non-compliance.


Well, in many cases, they are. There are no statutory regulations like some agencies have for the public. if you violate the GAAP, it's more like a speeding ticket. Those agencies are required to do the numbers by the book.

granted, even GAAP still allows for some dirty math. Just look at how often the books are cooked. The end financial statements are what are seen most and they can be completely legit looking while the books they were derived from may be tweaked beyond what anyone but a trained auditor may find.

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